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          民主黨第三次辯論在即,誰有資格參加?

          Natasha Bach 2019年08月22日

          目前已經有9名候選人通過了參加第三次辯論的門檻。

          距離下一輪民主黨總統候選人辯論還有將近一個月的時間,但是候選人必須在8月28日前滿足一定條件,才有資格參加這次全國辯論。也就是說,他們只有不到兩周的時間來獲得入場券了。

          今年的大選季,民主黨共有20名候選人參加了黨內辯論。不過要想獲得參加辯論的資格,他們要么得在三大民調中獲得不低于1%的支持率,要么得有不少于6.5萬名獨立捐贈者向其捐款。下一次也就是今年第三次民主黨辯論將于9月12日至13日在休斯頓舉行,本次活動由ABC和Univision聯合舉辦。這一次,民主黨全國委員會也提高了參選門檻,使得候選人比前兩次更加難以獲得資格。

          要想參加9月的這次辯論,候選人必須獲得不少于13萬人的捐款,其中來自20個不同的州的捐贈者不得少于400人。同時,候選人必須在四大民調中獲得不低于2%的支持率。相關民調必須是在6月28日到8月28日之間進行的,可以是全國性的,也可以是各州層面的。不過相關民調必須由預先授權的指定機構做出。候選人不得采用同一機構在同一區域內搞出的多個類似的民調結果來主張自己的資格。

          雖然門檻不可謂不高,但目前已經有9名候選人通過了這個門檻。他們分別是:美國前副總統喬·拜登、參議員伯尼·桑德斯、參議員伊麗莎白·沃倫、參議員卡瑪拉·哈里斯、參議員科里·布克、參議員艾米·克羅布查、印第安那州南本德市市長皮特·布蒂格、前眾議員貝托·奧羅克,以及華裔企業家楊安澤。

          此外還有至少兩名候選人也接近了這個標準,他們分別是:億萬富翁慈善家湯姆·斯太爾,美國前住房和城市發展部部長朱利安·卡斯特羅。斯太爾在上周已經達到了籌款門檻,但至少還需要一次2%以上的民調數據支持,才有資格參加他的第一次競選辯論。卡斯特羅同樣也需要一次2%以上的民調數據支持才能夠拿到入場券。

          眾議員圖爾西·加巴德已經邁過了13萬人的籌款門檻,也有一次合格的民調數據支持。如果她能在另外兩次民調中達到2%以上的支持率,她也有可能參加9月的這次辯論。最后是參議員基爾斯滕·吉利布蘭德,她已經有了一次合格的民調數據支持,離滿足籌款標準也不遠了。

          由于達不到上述標準,華盛頓州州長杰伊·英斯利、作家瑪麗安·威廉姆森、參議員邁克爾·班納特、蒙大拿州州長史蒂夫·布洛克、紐約市市長白思豪、前眾議員約翰·德萊尼、眾議員塞斯·莫爾頓、眾議員蒂姆·瑞安、前眾議員喬·塞斯塔克等則不太可能參加這次辯論了。同樣,前科羅拉多州州長約翰·希肯盧珀也因為沒能達到第三場辯論的要求,而于上周四退出了角逐。

          雖然最終可能只有9到13名候選人符合這次辯論的要求,但其余的候選人也并非完全沒有機會了。民主黨全國委員會已經決定,6月28日至8月28日之間的民調結果不僅適用于第三場辯論,也可以作為10月的第四場辯論的入門資格。也就是說,所有候選人還有一個月的時間來達到標準,有些目前表現暫時落后的候選人很有可能在第四場辯論中重新殺回舞臺。

          目前,民主黨還有20多名候選人沒有放棄角逐,第四場辯論的標準又定得相當寬松。因此,究竟誰能夠在民主黨初選中脫穎而出,目前猶未可知。(財富中文網)

          譯者:樸成奎

          There’s nearly a month to go until the next Democratic presidential debate—but 2020 candidates have less than two weeks to qualify, facing a deadline of August 28.

          The crowded field started debate season with 20 candidates qualifying, by either hitting 1% in three polls or getting donations from 65,000 individual donors. In preparation for the third debate, to be held on September 12 and 13 in Houston and hosted by ABC and Univision, the Democratic National Committee sought to make it more difficult for candidates to meet the qualifying criteria.

          This time around, a candidate must have received donations from 130,000 individuals, including at least 400 donors in a minimum of 20 different states. Candidates must also hit at least 2% in four polls to appear on the debate stage next month. Eligible polls must have been released between June 28 and August 28 and can be national or early state polls. They must also be conducted by a set of pre-approved organizations. A candidate cannot, however, use multiple polls covering the same geographic area conducted by the same organization to count toward this criteria.

          Despite these requirements, nine candidates have already made the cut: former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Cory Booker, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.

          There are at least two other candidates who are nearing meeting the criteria as well: new entry, billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, and former HUD Secretary Julián Castro. Steyer met the fundraising threshold last week and needs to hit at least 2% in just one more poll in order to make his first debate appearance. Castro similarly needs just one more poll of 2% or higher.

          Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has exceeded the 130,000 donor threshold and has one qualifying poll. Should she reach at least 2% in two other polls, she could also appear onstage in September. The final candidate that appears to have a shot is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who has one qualifying poll and is nearing the donor requirement.

          That leaves Gov. Jay Inslee, Marianne Williamson, Sen. Michael Bennet, Gov. Steve Bullock, Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Rep. John Delaney, Rep. Seth Moulton, Rep. Tim Ryan, and former Rep. Joe Sestak—all of whom are unlikely to make it to the next debate. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who dropped out of the race last Thursday, also had not met the requirements to make it to the third debate.

          Yet even though there may be just somewhere between nine and 13 candidates who meet the criteria for September’s debate, it’s still not over for the remaining candidates. The DNC has decided that polls counted toward the third debate—those conducted between June 28 and August 28—can also count toward the fourth debate, to be held in October. That means that all of the candidates will essentially have another month to meet the criteria, potentially deterring some of the lower performing candidates from dropping out of the race.

          With more than 20 candidates still in the running and this fairly lax criteria to make it to the fourth debate, it remains to be seen how long it will take for the field to naturally winnow itself down.

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